Political analyst Kevin O’Brien Chang has dismissed Dr Dayton Campbell and wider opposition assertions that the government is steering Jamaica toward autocracy, labelling it as mere political theatrics.

Campbell, general secretary of the People’s National Party (PNP), had recently criticised Prime Minister Andrew Holness’ statement that the government “does not need the opposition for accountability,” arguing that it dismisses Parliament’s constitutional role and undermines the principle of checks and balances.

However, Chang, in a telephone interview with Our Today this morning (June 17), described Campbell’s claim as folly, asserting that it is an attempt to construct a misleading narrative in favour of the PNP.

“It’s foolishness,” said Chang. “Holness was saying he doesn’t need the opposition because his own JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) will hold him accountable. He never said there is no accountability. He’s saying my people will hold me accountable; it’s not that he’s saying I’m not accountable to anyone.”

Chang further mused that Campbell’s comment reflects standard politics.

“You take a statement by the other side and try to twist it to make something, to make them look bad. Standard politics, but anybody who listened to Mr Holness would know he clearly was saying I don’t need the opposition to keep me accountable because my people will keep me accountable. They’re not afraid to criticise me,” he told Our Today.

Mixed messaging

While commenting on party communication strategies, Chang noted the difficulty in determining which party currently has the edge in public messaging. Ultimately, he said, voters will make that decision..

“The JLP, basically running on their record, and they have a pretty good record to run on. Murders are down 44 per cent, and there are record low unemployment, record low poverty rates, the lowest murder rate in 30 years, the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in 30 years, the highest net international reserves (NIR) and the highest real minimum wage ever.

“So, their messaging is basically their accomplishments. Whether they are pushing out their accomplishments enough is the question,” he added.

He cited a recent Don Anderson poll shared by Television Jamaica, in which 1,033 registered voters were asked, “Do you feel the government is doing enough to reduce poverty and unemployment”?

Despite record-low figures, only 26.9 per cent said yes, while 61.7 per cent said no.

“So, the question is, is the JLP pushing its accomplishments out effectively? Well, the PNP – it’s kind of hard to know what they are running on, except the prime minister and the Integrity Commission [scandal]. I don’t know what else they are running on. I haven’t seen them give any concrete plans. They put out some stuff about a billion dollars for social media people, a billion dollars for house building for young people, but those are just throw-outs. There’s no comprehensive policy behind them.”

The third-term challenge

Chang also highlighted the political history of third-term bids in Jamaica, noting that most leaders seeking a third consecutive term in office have failed.

“But politics is a funny thing because the biggest problem the JLP has going for it is a third-term syndrome, and if you look at the other third-term governments in Jamaica, one in 1972, the JLP had two terms [led by Hugh Shearer], they were going for a third term, and they got booted out. Michael Manley, in 1980, went for a third term and got booted out. In 1989, Edward Seaga went for a third term and got booted out, and in 2002, Mr PJ Patterson was going for a third term, and he didn’t get booted out, but he went from 50 seats to, like, 34. He dropped a lot of seats. And so the JLP is going against the tide of history,” Chang continued.

He emphasised that the consistency in the government losing their bid for a term suggests a desire among the electorate for change.

“All third-term governments, the ones going after two terms, the populace seems to say, ‘Time for a change.’ We want some new faces… So the JLP’s problem is third-term syndrome. How can they account for that? In my view, by putting up new fresh faces, show all the fresh faces we have.

“What will our cabinet look like in our third term? Without the old guard, we’ll put in new people. Younger people, more females. And the JLP is threatened there; the PNP has the most female MPs of any administration ever. A lot of young women, and I think they have the most MPs under 50 of any administration ever. So they have fresh faces they can promote. Maybe the PNP strategy is just hammering the government, not really giving any policies. Just say, ‘Time for a change,’ and highlight all the negatives. Maybe people don’t vote in governments; they vote them out. Or they don’t even vote in opposition; they vote out governments. So, possibly the PNP is playing on that strategy,” Chang added.