Over the next three months, the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is projecting that the region will experience more comfortable temperatures and humidity during the cool season.

In its January to March 2024 bulletin, CariCOF said the period, which also marks the build-up toward the peak of the dry season in the region, may be even dryer than usual.

“This is forecast to be associated with an increase in short and long-term drought concerns, especially in Belize, the Guianas, and Puerto Rico. The frequency of short dry spells, and wildfire potential towards March. Nevertheless, the chance of intense showers in central and southern parts of Belize, the Guianas, and in mountainous areas of the Caribbean islands, keeps the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards moderate to high there through January,” CariCOF said.

An outlook for the April to June period is projected to feature the transition from the dry to the wet season, as well as the transition into the heat season in the Caribbean.

“The tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast to remain unseasonably warm, whereas the strong El Niño is expected to fade. Unusually high air temperatures will most likely prevail in many locations through June 2024 and the occurrence of significant heat stress is expected to evolve.

The risk of severe weather impacts, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards may sharply rise in April or May, as the chance of an intense early wet season is higher than in most years. Historically, a reasonable analog to this year’s expected conditions is 2010, when regional drought was followed by extreme heat, rainfall and floods,” CariCOF said.