A new tropical wave has arrived near Barbados, Dominica, and Martinique with moisture stretching south through Trinidad and Tobago.

Forecasters indicate that while the wave is currently weak and not expected to develop into a named storm, it is bringing a high probability of rain throughout the day and into tonight.

Specific regional forecasts include:

• St. Vincent and the Grenadines: A 60% chance of rain is expected, with showers likely continuing through the overnight hours.
• Barbados and St. Lucia: Rain chances remain elevated, with a 40% to 50% chance of heavy downpours today and tonight.
• Trinidad and Tobago: Following rain overnight and this morning, there remains a 40% to 50% chance of additional showers.
• Dominica and Guadeloupe: These islands are seeing a 50% to 60% chance of rain as the wave pushes through.

Much lower chance of rain

Residents in the northern islands, such as Antigua, Barbuda, and the Virgin Islands, can expect a much lower chance of rain, as the bulk of the moisture is tracking further south.

Bottom of Form

Meteorologists are closely monitoring a new tropical wave, which will increase the chance of showers across these areas, the rain is expected to be “broken,” meaning some islands may see downpours while neighboring islands remain dry.

Despite the active appearance of recent “blobs” of moisture in the Caribbean, several factors are preventing these waves from organizing into hurricanes. High wind shear, strong winds aloft that tilt or “knock off” the tops of developing storms is currently prevalent across the region.

Additionally, the presence of dry air and Saharan dust continues to hinder tropical organization. While the waves moving through early this week pose no immediate tropical storm threat, meteorologists are keeping an eye on a separate tropical wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa later in the week.

Some early models suggest this future system may have a slightly higher chance of development as it moves into the East Atlantic near Cabo Verde.