The hurricane warning for Jamaica has been downgraded and a tropical storm warning is now in effect as Elsa continues to weaken while approaching the southern coast of Hispaniola.

In its 11 am bulletin, the Meteorological Service, Jamaica, said this means that hurricane conditions are no longer likely.

“However, tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat within the next 24 hours,” the Met Service said.

“Elsa is now a tropical storm. At 10:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.0 degrees north, longitude 71.6 degrees west, or about 500 kilometres (310 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica. This is also about 70 kilometres (40 miles) south of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic.”

Elsa’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 km/h (70 mph), with higher gusts with little change in strength forecast for tonight, followed by gradual weakening on Sunday and Monday when the system is expected to be near or over Cuba. 

The Met Service said tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 km (125 miles) mainly to the north of the centre and Elsa is moving towards the west-northwest near 46 km/h (29 mph). However, a decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn towards the northwest on Sunday night or Monday.

“On its forecast track, the centre of Tropical Storm Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, pass northeast of Jamaica on Sunday morning, then move over parts of eastern Cuba later in the day.”

It is still expected that weather conditions over Jamaica will deteriorate this evening with widespread rain and tropical-storm-force winds spreading over northern and eastern parishes, and then to the rest of the island during the night and early on Sunday.  Flash-flooding in low-lying areas could take place with 75-150 millimetres (3-6 inches) of rainfall.

Northeastern parishes should also expect two- to four-foot storm surges along the coast.

“With dangerous sea conditions continuing across the central Caribbean today, all small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks, are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and sea conditions have returned to normal,” the Met Service said, noting that it would continue to monitor the progress of the system.

The next bulletin on Tropical Storm Elsa will be issued at 2:00 p.m. today.