Durrant Pate/Contributor

Guyana’s economic growth is forecast to slow down with the latest estimates averaging 11.7 per cent over 2025-2026, down from an estimated 43.6 per cent in 2024. 

Rising oil production and exports will continue to underpin robust growth, but Fitch Solutions expects the pace of expansion to slow due to substantially higher statistical base effects and high import needs. 

In addition, Fitch cites that new US tariffs will not have a meaningful direct impact on Guyana’s growth outlook, despite it facing one of the highest additional tariff rates (38 per cent) announced by President Donald Trump on April 2. This is because commodities like oil and gold, which account for practically all of Guyana’s exports to the US, are exempt from the new tariffs. 

As a result, Fitch estimates that the effective tariff rate on Guyana will be around 0.7 per cent. Nevertheless, Guyana faces some indirect effects from changing US trade policy.

Lowering oil returns

The main channel will be the impact of lower global oil prices on export earnings and government revenues, which in turn threatens public spending and investment. Brent crude prices have fallen sharply since Trump’s tariff announcements, causing Fitch’s Oil & Gas team to recently lower its forecast averages from US$76 per barrel to US$68 per barrel in 2025 and from US$75 per barrel to US$71 per barrel in 2026.

The government’s 2025 budget sets out a 20.6 per cent rise in total expenditures, but this was based on a projected average oil price of US$71.90 per barrel, with weaker prices meaning revenues are now likely to fall short of the target.

However, the international credit ratings agency does not believe the government will restrict current spending ahead of elections due by November 2025, but Fitch could see some delays in capital spending to contain fiscal pressures, capping public investment growth. 

Meanwhile, increased uncertainty over global trade and growth will likely weigh on private sector investment in the non-oil economy in the near term.