S&P Global Ratings gave First Citizens Bank Ltd good marks this week. 

Strong capital, conservative provisioning, a risk-adjusted capital ratio north of 15%. On paper, that is the kind of scorecard a bank wants. But the headline number that matters most sits one level up: the bank’s rating is capped by Trinidad and Tobago’s own sovereign rating, BBB- with a negative outlook.

That gap is the story. First Citizens earned a stand-alone credit profile of “bbb,” a notch that reflects genuine balance-sheet strength. Yet its actual issuer rating tracks the government’s, because S&P treats the bank’s exposure to T&T as effectively total. Loans, investments, deposits: all concentrated in one small, oil-and-gas-dependent economy. When the sovereign’s outlook turns negative, as it did in September 2025, the bank inherits that risk regardless of how clean its own books look.

This is not unique to First Citizens. It is a structural feature of banking in small, undiversified economies, and it explains why even a well-run institution cannot simply outperform its way to a higher rating. S&P has been explicit about the mechanics before: a bank’s rating rarely exceeds its sovereign’s when domestic exposure dominates the balance sheet. First Citizens holds close to 20% of the country’s loan and deposit aggregates. There is no meaningful way to diversify around that concentration without moving assets outside T&T at a scale the group has not pursued.

The sovereign’s own trajectory has not been encouraging. S&P cut Trinidad and Tobago to BBB- back in 2020 and has kept the outlook negative for most of the years since, with the most recent action in September 2025. Moody’s rates the country two notches lower, at Ba2, also with a negative outlook as of December 2025. Government debt has climbed past TT$123 billion, and revenue remains tied to hydrocarbon prices and production volumes that Port of Spain does not control. None of that changes because a bank in Port of Spain holds strong capital ratios.

What makes this worth watching through the rest of 2026 is the timing. Government fiscal talks and budget planning are unfolding against a backdrop of a sovereign rating already one downgrade away from sub-investment grade. If T&T loses its investment-grade status, First Citizens does not get to plead its own case. The rating moves with the sovereign, mechanically, regardless of capital buffers or loss reserves.

That should reframe how investors and depositors read reassuring bank-level ratings news in T&T. A strong capital position tells you the bank can absorb shocks better than a weaker peer. It does not tell you the bank is insulated from the country’s fiscal path. For that, the number to watch is not First Citizens’ 15.2% risk-adjusted capital ratio. It is what happens to BBB- the next time S&P revisits Trinidad and Tobago’s own books.

In recent times, an unusual number of senior managers have walked away from First Citizens Group Financial Holdings, including CEO Jason Julien. The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago is curious as to what is going on and what is being done to bring in competent personnel to fill the gaps.

Is the corporate culture at First Citizens a problem?

It came as a surprise that Group Chief Internal Auditor Donna Miller resigned in April. Before that, Group Chief Risk Officer Gerard Morton resigned at the beginning of the year. 

First Citizens is now a ship without an officer corps.

Chairman of First Citizens Shankar Bidaisee explained: “Following the resignation of the Group CEO, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, in keeping with its standard supervisory remit, wrote to First Citizens to ascertain its plans moving forward to fill the recent vacancies of key positions.

“First Citizens responded to the Central Bank to provide its response on the way forward to fill these roles. First Citizens has also provided a comprehensive status report to fill permanent appointments, vacancies of key officers and any other  current vacancies and senior management/officer levels, including acting positions and succession plans.”