The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) expects to keep daily vessel transits at 32 from September 15 until further notice, and says the 29.5-a-day figure cited for October was a budget assumption, not its operating plan, according to a September 16 report by Marine Insight.

The clarification changes how the earlier number should be read. A draft budget submitted to Panama’s National Assembly projected an average of 29.5 transits a day for the fiscal year starting October 1, AFP reported. The ACP now describes that figure as a conservative scenario built around the possible effect of an exceptionally severe El Niño on water availability.

Even at 32, the canal is running below recent levels. It averaged about 35 daily transits through June, against a capacity of roughly 40, Reuters reported. In May, the ACP said it planned no restrictions this year. Its later advisory capped transits at 34 from September 4 and 32 from September 15, with nine slots for Neopanamax vessels and 23 for Panamax, according to Il Sole 24 Ore.

The constraint is water. Rainfall from May through August ran 34% below the historical average and watershed inflows were 44% below normal, according to InvestingLive’s summary of the ACP advisory. Panama has declared a national emergency over El Niño, which is forecast to be the strongest in four decades and to peak later this year, Marine Insight reported.

The ACP has also delayed cuts to maximum draft, the depth ships need to float safely. A reduction to 14.48 metres was pushed back to October 1, Reuters reported. Lower draft limits can force vessels to carry less cargo.

ACP Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta told AFP earlier this month that the daily average could fall to about 29, Sourcing Journal reported. The new clarification leaves 32 as the working figure.

The canal handles about 5% of global maritime trade and roughly 40% of US container traffic, so limits on transits bear on shipping schedules and freight costs, including on Caribbean routes. [confirm effect on Caribbean port volumes and freight rates] During the 2023 drought, deep cuts to daily transits created a bottleneck of ships and sent companies looking for alternative routes, NCB Capital Markets noted.

Shippers will next watch October 1, when the deferred draft reduction is due and the new fiscal year begins. The ACP says 32 stands until further notice.