A quiet Atlantic hurricane season is set to push global property catastrophe reinsurance prices lower again at the January 1 renewals, but Caribbean insurers still absorbing Hurricane Melissa losses may not see the full benefit.

Analysts at KBW, after meetings with 16 companies at the Rendez-Vous de Septembre in Monte Carlo, expect property catastrophe excess-of-loss rates to fall at least 10 % at January 1, 2027, a smaller cut than at the January and June 2026 renewals. Fitch Ratings’ Brian Schneider said prices could fall a further 10% to 15% on a risk-adjusted basis if major catastrophe losses remain limited.

The declines follow a steep run. Guy Carpenter’s global property catastrophe rate-on-line index was down about 16% after the mid-year renewals, and Florida programmes fell 15% to 20% at June 1, the broker said. Howden Re put June 1 cuts at up to 25%. Brokers attribute the fall to record reinsurance capital and few large losses.

NOAA’s August outlook still gives a 75% chance of below-normal activity and calls for seven to 13 named storms. Tropical Storm Fay, the season’s sixth, is forecast to weaken from Monday and dissipate by week’s end, and the National Hurricane Center issued advisories on no other Atlantic system on Sunday. Fitch’s forecast assumes no large second-half loss.

Melissa struck Jamaica as a Category 5 storm on October 28, 2025. Modelling firms put insured losses at roughly US$1 billion to US$5 billion. Data from the Financial Services Commission (FSC) show insurance service expenses rose 223%, or about J$97 billion, in 2025, partly offset by J$48.3 billion in net reinsurance recoveries. General insurers’ net profit fell from J$2.6 billion in 2024 to J$30 million in 2025, and the sector posted a J$200 million pre-tax loss in the March 2026 quarter, against a J$600 million profit a year earlier, according to  FSC data.

Some regional carriers did not see the same relief at last year-end. Bahamian underwriters said in December that meaningful cuts in property coverage costs were unlikely after Melissa gave reinsurers pause, the Tribune in Nassau reported. The Observer noted that Jamaican insurers also face lower reinsurance commissions and the possibility of higher reinsurance costs. 

Many claims remain unsettled. The FSC is reviewing how insurers apply the average clause, which reduces payouts on underinsured properties, and General Accident’s chief executive said about 70% of Melissa claims it received were underinsured. Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged private insurers in June to speed up settlements. Insurers also face J$646 million in additional FSC fees under a new schedule, and it is unclear whether that cost will reach premiums.

Several executives told KBW that reductions of 10% or more could begin to strain rate adequacy. Treaty talks for Caribbean carriers typically run to year-end, after the season closes on November 30.