However, data for the third quarter of 2021 is encouraging

The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has estimated that the coronavirus pandemic will likely cost the global tourism sector some US$2 trillion in lost revenue in 2021.

According to the latest forecast by the UNWTO, the same amount was lost in 2020, making tourism one of the sectors hit hardest by the health crisis. Despite recent improvements, the report warned that demand for travel could be further affected by “uneven vaccination rates around the world and new COVID-19 strains, which had prompted new travel restrictions in some countries”.

In the past few days, the emergence of the Omicron variant has led dozens of countries to reinstate restrictions on arrivals, or to delay relaxation in COVID-19 travel and testing rules, leading to wide uncertainty for holiday season travellers worldwide.

Spikes in oil prices and the disruption of global supply chains have also had an effect. According to the latest UNWTO data, international tourist arrivals are expected to remain 70-75 per cent below 2019 levels in 2021, a similar decline as in 2020.

Tourist arrivals are still 76 per cent below pre-pandemic levels

However, UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says “data for the third quarter of 2021 is encouraging. However, arrivals are still 76 per cent below pre-pandemic levels and results across the different global regions remain uneven”.

In light of the rising cases and the emergence of new variants, Pololikashvili posits: “We cannot let our guard down and need to continue our efforts to ensure equal access to vaccinations, coordinate travel procedures, make use of digital vaccination certificates to facilitate mobility, and continue to support the sector.”

The UN tourism body is calling the sector’s recovery “fragile” and “slow”.

Despite, the improvement seen in the third quarter of the year, the pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions.

In some sub-regions, such as Southern and Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, North and Central America, arrivals actually rose above 2020 levels in the first nine months of 2021.

However, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific were down by as much as 95 per cent when compared with 2019, as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel. Africa and the Middle East recorded 74 per cent and 81 per cent drops respectively in the third quarter compared to 2019.

Among the larger destinations, Croatia, Mexico and Turkey showed the strongest recovery in the period of July to September.

Caribbean Rebound

The Caribbean had the highest results of any of the sub regions defined by the UNWTO, with arrivals up 55 per cent compared to 2020.

International tourist arrivals “rebounded” during the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere thanks to increased travel confidence, rapid vaccination and the easing of entry restrictions in many nations.

The UNWTO report states that in Europe, the EU Digital COVID-19 Certificate has helped facilitate free movement within the European Union.