Jamaica’s tourism sector is running ahead of its own accommodation capacity, with visitor demand outstripping room supply nearly a year after Hurricane Melissa, tourism officials said at the opening of the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) in Ocho Rios on September 14.

Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) Deputy Director of Tourism for the Americas Philip Rose told delegates that flights to the island are averaging an 85 per cent load factor for the January to August period, even though available airline seats fell 22 per cent year on year. Just under 1.9 million seats were available to Jamaica over those eight months. Passenger arrivals declined by just under 20 per cent, a smaller drop than the seat reduction, pushing load factors up 3.8 per cent.

“The number that I want you to focus on is that load factor at 85 per cent,” Rose told the audience of tourism stakeholders, travel advisers and international media. “That means that essentially the flights are full. You might be able to get a seat on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, but all the prime days are full.”

Rose said the constraint traces back to hotel capacity. Roughly 70 per cent of Jamaica’s Melissa-affected room stock has been restored, leaving about 30 per cent still offline. More than 11,000 rooms are expected to return to the market between now and 2027, including over 1,900 rooms reopening in December alone. Properties on the December reopening list include Bahia Principe in Runaway Bay, Sandals Montego Bay, Sandals Caribbean Cay, and two MGM Muthu properties in Montego Bay. Rose said airline capacity is currently tracking in line with available hotel inventory, and that additional airlift should follow as rooms come back online.

The strain has shown up in fares. Rose said round-trip tickets between Miami and Jamaica topped US$3,000 during one recent week, driven by flights operating at or near capacity. Despite the constrained supply, Jamaica welcomed 2.3 million visitors and generated roughly US$2.5 billion in tourism earnings between January and August.

Separately, the JTB announced that Disney Cruise Line’s newest ship, Disney Destiny, will make its inaugural call at Falmouth’s cruise port on October 13, bringing just under 2,800 passengers. The Wish-class vessel, which entered service in November 2025, joins a growing roster of Disney ships calling on Jamaica alongside vessels from Norwegian, MSC, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess and Virgin Voyages. From January to July, Jamaica recorded 234 cruise calls and 736,372 cruise passengers, with Montego Bay, Falmouth and Ocho Rios accounting for most visits.

Rose said cruise tourism remains an important recovery partner, describing ship visits as a way to introduce first-time travellers to the island with the aim of converting them into return stopover visitors. He encouraged cruise passengers to venture beyond established resort areas toward Kingston and Port Antonio to sample more of the destination.

The gap between demand and room supply is a near-term ceiling on how much revenue Jamaica’s tourism sector can capture this winter, even as headline booking numbers look strong. Full flights and constrained hotel inventory point toward continued upward pressure on room rates and airfares into the 2026/27 winter season, a dynamic hotel-sector investors and earnings watchers will want to track as the delayed room stock returns. The Disney Destiny’s October 13 call adds a concrete, dated marker for cruise-passenger volume growth as the island works to convert single-day visitors into longer, higher-spending stopover trips.

The impact of Hurricane Melissa meant many resorts had to go offline and undergo refurbishment. Nevertheless, Destination Jamaica remains strong, with visitors still opting to come to the country. The global economy is roiled by the US/Iran conflict, and oil prices are now over US$100 a barrel. Airlines have to recalibrate their operations and cut back on some destinations. This will impact Jamaica but not to a deleterious degree. 

The Minister of Tourism, Ed Bartlett, who has done a very good job with Jamaica’s tourism for many years, anticipates that the year will close with the country attracting some 3 million visitors. With rooms becoming available and many resorts reopening, 2027 should see that number going up to in excess of 4 million visitors.  By 2028, Jamaica is expected to surpass its best year for arrivals, which was 2024.  Jamaica is seeing more visitors from South America and Canada. The war with Iran will abate next year, and that will see more visitors from the Middle East coming to Jamaica. Minister Ed Bartlett has been courting officials from this region and sees great potential there. He also would like to develop the Eastern European market where economies there are growing. 

Minister Ed Bartlett has spoken with major airlines Qatar and Etihad this week, and talks were promising.

Speaking with Our Today from Saudi Arabia, Minister of Tourism Ed Bartlett said: “ The investment climate is picking up nicely, and we have had some discussions with the big funds in the Middle East. I  intend to return in December for the Abu Dhabi Finance Week and Sustainability Week. It will be a time when the highest level of capital will be available for consultation discussions, and Jamaica needs to be at the table. I would like representatives from the Saudi Fund for Development and the Saudi Esta to visit Jamaica and see some of our projects with a view to investing in them. This should take place in February/March next year.”